Illinois government: Volatile spring session looming

By Anthony Man/ QUAD-CITY TIMES | Saturday, March 30, 2002

SPRINGFIELD — If the entire spring legislative session in Illinois could be put on videotape, the best thing to do would be fast-forward to May. Only then will a clear picture of the 2002 session begin to emerge.

Analysts and participants predict an unusual session,

influenced by an unprecedented group of factors: a tight governor's race with no incumbent, a tangle of new legislative districts and an abysmal financial picture.

The central, overriding factor is the poor state of state finances. Expenses are up while income is growing slowly or declining. Democrats and Republicans, as well as outside Legislature-watchers, said the focus this year will be all budget, all the time.

"This whole session is budget, budget, budget," said Sen. Denny Jacobs, D-East Moline, a member of the Revenue Committee.

House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, said recently that the crumbling financial picture is at least as bad as the dark days of the early 1990s, when a frenzy of overspending and a recession combined to force severe budget cuts and employee layoffs.

"We're looking at a very bleak budget picture," he said. "It's going to require some very difficult decision-making by everybody."

Kent Redfield is professor of political studies at the University of Illinois-Springfield. This is how he describes the Legislature's mission this year: "Figure out how to do a budget with the minimal amount of political damage and get out of town," he said. "It's real hard to believe that they're going to do anything significant; they've got so many problems with the budget."

Fixing the state's financial problems, and getting anything else done, is complicated by a host of other factors:

The state is led by Gov. George Ryan, whose popularity in public opinion polls is so low he decided not to run for a second term.

The fall campaign for governor is under way with the Republicans and Democrats looking to seize any advantage.

Every legislator who wants to return must run for re-election in a district with at least some new territory because of once-a-decade redistricting.

"It's a very unusual set of circumstances, and politicians hate risk and they hate uncertainty," Redfield said. "That makes it much more difficult to get innovative, risky kinds of pieces of legislation or initiatives through. The atmosphere just works against it."

Steve Brown, Madigan's press secretary, said the political factors add an unknown quality to the session.

"There's a lot of question marks. There's lots and lots of speculation and more complicated ingredients than most years. I can't think of another complicating ingredient you could add. They're all on the table right now. They're all on the buffet line," Brown said.

Anthony Man can be contacted at (217) 782-4043 or anthony.man@lee.net.