Obama leads Clinton by 2-1 in Illinois poll
SPRINGFIELD — Buoyed by his continued “rock star” popularity in his adopted home state, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois is favored more than 2-to-1 over U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York going into next week’s Illinois Democratic presidential primary, according to a new Post-Dispatch/KMOV-TV poll.
But even here, in this strongest of Obama strongholds, a gender gap persists.
The poll found that Obama’s Illinois lead over Clinton is considerably smaller among female voters — an indication of the demographic challenge that could await him throughout the country on Feb. 5, when Illinois and 21 other states hold Democratic primaries or caucuses.
Among Republicans vying for delegates in the Illinois GOP primary that day, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona holds a commanding lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, according to the poll. Meanwhile former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani — once viewed as a natural favorite among Republicans in heavily urban, politically moderate states such as Illinois — was a distant third.
The Research 2000 poll was conducted from Monday through Thursday, with telephone interviews of 800 likely Illinois Democrats and Republicans who vote regularly in state elections. The poll has a margin for error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The poll found that Obama remains about as popular at home as a politician gets, with a 68 percent “favorable” rating. The former Illinois state legislator was catapulted into national prominence during his overwhelming victory in the state’s 2004 U.S. Senate race.
By comparison, the state’s second-most-popular politician, Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, had a 54 percent “favorable” rating in the poll, while unpopular officials such as Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich and President Bush were held well below 50 percent.
Del Ali, pollster with Research 2000, said Obama seems to have, so far, avoided the usual pattern seen with new, popular politicians after they’ve been incumbents for a while.
“I might have expected his popularity to go down some by now. It’s clear to me he’s on an extended honeymoon in Illinois,” Ali said. “He’s considered pretty special (there).”
Obama and Clinton are the leading candidates nationally for the Democratic presidential nomination, and are, respectively, the first black person and first woman with serious shots at the White House. Gender and racial factors, initially invisible in the contest, have started asserting themselves in recent primaries and polls around the nation. The new poll indicates that Illinois is no exception.
The poll found Obama favored over Clinton among potential Illinois Democratic primary voters by a 51 percent to 22 percent margin, with U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina trailing with 15 percent.
“I like what (Obama) stands for,” said poll respondent Kevin Sandall of the Peoria, Ill., area, who cited the campaign’s focus on crossing partisan and racial lines. “He’s a very honest and decent person. I think he’s got a lot on the ball.”
But Clinton, a Chicago-area native, also has admirers here, particularly among women. The poll found that among women in the sample, Obama still won, but by a much narrower margin of 44 percent to 30 percent.
“I never thought that I’d vote for a woman for president. I was just kind of old fashioned about that ... but she knows the ropes. She’s had her foot in the door,” said poll respondent Deborah Friedrich of the Centralia, Ill., area, who is supporting Clinton. “I like the way she speaks. I think, all in all, she’d be the better president.”
Meanwhile, Obama’s support among men showed a much wider margin over Clinton — 60 percent to 11 percent. His advantage among black voters was similarly lopsided.
“It’s clear that Hillary Clinton does very well with women,” Ali said. “There’s a huge gender gap there. Her (overall) numbers would be a heck of a lot worse if there wasn’t.”
The poll found Clinton’s general approval rating in Illinois stands at 53 percent, making her more popular here than most of the state’s homegrown politicians. But in a reflection of the problem she’s faced elsewhere, her disapproval rating also is relatively high, at 42 percent. Obama and Edwards are at 27 percent and 33 percent disapproval, respectively.
Republicans on Feb. 5 will compete in 21 primaries or caucuses around the nation, including in Illinois.
Among those likely to vote in Illinois’ Republican primary, the poll found McCain comfortably leading the pack of five candidates, with 31 percent support, reflecting the resurgence he has seen around around the nation lately. Romney was second in the Illinois poll, with 20 percent, and Giuliani trailed with 13 percent.
Last year, many key Illinois Republicans, including popular former Gov. Jim Edgar, had predicted that Giuliani’s centrist views on some social issues would serve him well among Illinois’ generally moderate GOP voters. But Giuliani’s star has dimmed in recent months here and around the country, while McCain’s once-dying campaign has revived.
“It’s just been recently that I’ve started looking at him,” said poll respondent Charlotte Norris of DuQuoin, Ill., a recent McCain convert. “He’s older. He seems like he knows more.”
Norris is a Republican who supported Bush in previous presidential elections. Her view on that subject, too, has changed lately.
“He was doing a good job. He’s not so much now,” she said. “We’ve got to get out of this war.”
The poll found that view is a common one. Bush’s approval rating stood at a dismal 29 percent in Illinois, with a 70 percent disapproval rate (almost an exact reversal of Obama’s approval-disapproval numbers). The top areas of concern for poll respondents were the economy, Iraq and health care — all areas in which Bush has problems.
“A long time ago, voters decided they don’t like this war and they want out,” Ali said. That and an uncertain economy, he said, have combined to keep Bush in historic low approval ratings in Illinois and elsewhere. “People have cemented their views about him.”
(The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is a Lee Enterprises newspaper.)